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New Home Sales Fall; Factory Orders Jump

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MensajePublicado: Jue Jul 27, 2006 10:26 pm    Asunto: New Home Sales Fall; Factory Orders Jump Responder citando

New Home Sales Fall; Factory Orders Jump

New Home Sales Fall in June While Inventory Hits Record High; Factory Orders Jump

Sales of new homes fell in June for the first time in four months, and the government also lowered figures for May, providing further evidence the high-flying housing market is losing altitude.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that new home sales dropped by 3 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 1.131 million units. It was the first decline since an 11.5 percent drop in February.

The government also marked down sales activity in May to a pace of 1.166 million units, substantially below its initial estimate of 1.234 million units.

Analysts pointed to the drop in sales last month and the downward revision for May as fresh evidence that housing was slowing considerably from the impact of higher mortgage rates.

Sales of both new and existing homes set records for five consecutive years as the housing industry enjoyed a boom powered by the lowest mortgage rates in four decades.

But rates have risen this year as the Federal Reserve tightens credit conditions in hopes of slowing the economy and keeping inflation in check.

Mortgage rates retreated slightly this week. The 30-year mortgage dropped to 6.72 percent, down from a four-year high of 6.80 percent last week, but still a percentage point above where rates were at this time last year.

The drop in rates this week was credited to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, whose comments were interpreted by the markets as signaling that the central bank's two-year string of rate increase could be ending.

The government reported that the median price of a new home was $321,300 in June. That was 2.3 percent higher than a year ago but 1.5 percent lower than in May.

Analysts said the drop in new home sales was consistent with the slowdown shown this week in sales of existing homes, which fell for the eighth time in the past 10 months.

"The housing market peaked a year ago and has been slowly deflating ever since," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's "We can expect another year of lower sales with price declines in some parts of the country."

In other economic news:

--Orders to factories for big-ticket durable goods jumped by a stronger-than-expected 3.1 percent in June, helped by a rebound in demand for commercial aircraft. Analysts said business investment would help bolster manufacturing production in coming months as demand by consumers slows. President Bush noted the figure in a speech to the National Association of Manufacturers. "The manufacturing sector is expanding," he said. "The economic policies we have pursued are working."

--The number of people filing claims for unemployment benefits last week fell by 7,000 to 298,000, indicating continued strength in the labor market even though job growth has slowed in recent months.

The 3 percent decline in home sales, which followed a small 0.5 percent increase in May, left the number of unsold homes at a record 566,000.

At the June sales pace, it would take 6.1 months to sell the backlog of homes, up sharply from the 4.3-month supply of unsold homes a year ago when the housing market was booming.

Economists are looking for new home sales to slow further as mortgage rates keep rising.

"Our view remains that sales will continue to slow over the course of this year and into next," said Patrick Newport, an economist with Global Insight. "A soft-landing continues to be the most likely scenario."

The big worry is that home sales will fall so sharply that it could send shock waves through the economy, much as the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2000 contributed to the recession the next year.

But so far, economists said the decline in housing is contributing to an economic slowdown, but they are not forecasting a recession.

In June, sales were weak in every section of the country except the West, which posted an 8.2 percent increase after a decline of 7.3 percent in May. Sales fell 11.3 percent in the Northeast and were down 7.9 percent in the Midwest and 6 percent in the South.

Home sales:

Durable goods:

Jobless claims:
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